– Stocks were flat, and inflation sensitive asset classes rallied.
– It was a difficult week for growth and momentum, but energy stocks rallied more than 3%.
– Emerging markets continue to struggle – trading more like a stagflationary environment than reflationary one. China declined 1.75%.
– Lumber prices climbed another 9% to all-time highs and are up nearly 370% over the last 12 months.
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Market Outlook – The Confident Consumer is Back
Market Risk Index falls as velocity continues to improve.
Consumers have never been so confident this early in economic recovery.
Sell in May in a post-election year.
Tobin’s Q…is really dang high.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%