– It was a solid week for financial assets broadly – all major asset classes advanced.
– Risk off assets declined – utilities, staples, low volatility stocks struggled.
– Emerging markets outperformed again on another big week from China. China crossed into positive territory ytd.
– Has lumber finally peaked? It has declined more than 20% from its all-time high in early May.
– For the third week in a row, our psychology and valuation composites are pegged at the 100th percentile.
– It was a positive week for International equities, Real Estate, and Treasuries but a down week for US stocks and commodities.
– A zero-sum week for style box investing, as value stocks declined to fuel a modest rally in Growth stocks.
– Emerging markets outperformed after China finally managed to stage a rally. Chinese equities are still down YTD.
– Except for strength in precious metals, commodities struggled and declined. Bitcoin fell by more than 25% over the week.
– NASDAQ High Low Logic triggers its first major sell signal since before the pandemic.
– De-Trended Equity Put/Call Ratio triggers its first major buy signal since the bear market bottom.
– Regardless of these conflicting signals, speculative sentiment across markets remains high.
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Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
