– All major asset classes (when cap-weighted) moved higher, led by US equities.
– It was a theme of Large cap strength last week, particularly for Large Cap Growth. Small caps actually declined, as did Energy stocks.
– Good week for developed mkts, but not emerging. China declined by more than 2%, as their attempt to normalize policy continues to weigh on equity prices.
– Lumber prices climbed another 10% to new all-time highs and are up nearly 250% over the last 12 months.
– Velocity turns positive, and PPI inflation surpasses 10%. Markets tend to struggle when PPI growth surpasses 5% and even more so above 10%.
– Short-term technicals improve over last week, and pre-pandemic lows are in sight for VIX.
– NASDAQ High Low Logic Index triggers its first warning of the bull market.
– New highs in AAII bullish sentiment and Leveraged ETF sentiment.
– Treasuries experienced their worst quarter since the early 80s, and commodities lead all asset classes on a rebound in oil prices.
– After being the worst (best) performer for 4 of the last 6 years, small value (large growth) is the best (worst) performer year to date.
– China equities, down thus far in 2021, have been holding back emerging market equity performance.
– It was a difficult quarter for fixed income. High yield is the only sector still positive in 2021. Meanwhile, Bitcoin doubled in Q1.
– ISM Price Index is still running hot.
– AAII Allocation survey shows individuals have embraced the bull.
– Minor sell signal in NASDAQ High Low Logic Index
– Consumer Expectations shoot higher.
%
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
