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World Wrap

World Wrap

– Commodities and international equities were the only bright spots last week. Commodities continue to signal building inflationary pressures.
– Value beat out Growth. It was one of the first weeks this year where the style factor was more important than market capitalization.
– The median country return is lagging. Most international performance has been driven by China and Asian equities ytd.
– Lumber futures broke above 1,000 for the first time. Prices on 20Yr Treasuries had a rough week, declining 2.7%.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– A strong week for all risk assets except Treasuries. Commodities lead all asset classes year to date.
– One of last year’s big laggards, small caps, are off to a strong start. The same can’t be said for value, which is running even with growth.
– The out-performance gap between Emerging and Developed markets widened.
– A down dollar sent commodity prices higher. The coming week may be key to see if the dollar can put in another higher low.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%