– Large bounces in US risk assets last week on news of even more drastic Fed intervention, this time in junk bonds.
– It’s unusual, but not unheard of, that the sectors and styles that were leading the bull market are also leading early in the bear market.
– Saudi Arabia, Russia, and US lead coalition to cut oil supply, but it may be too late to stem oversupply from sharp drop in demand.
– Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, tried to temper expectations for a V-shaped economic recovery over the weekend, as Fed’s bal sheet surpasses $6T.
Archive
Market Outlook – Neutral MRI, but still the best reading since 2016
– Market Risk Index drops to 42.2%. It’s a neutral reading but also the lowest since 2016.
– Valuations move back into the worst decile.
– If the Fed decides to buy stocks, is that enough reason to get bullish?
– Consumer Confidence still has a lot of room for improvement given a recessionary bear market backdrop.
Q1 2020 World Wrap
– Bull market ends, just shy of its 11th birthday. Bear market began with a massive unwind of leveraged investors as Coronavirus triggers a global recession.
– Previous bull’s most loved (Tech, growth, etc) continue to hold up, while the most unloved areas are punished further (Energy, small value, etc).
– Nearly 10mil file unemployment claims over the last 2wks. Gold and US Gov’t securities the only assets to close up in Q1. Prices on 20Yr Treas climbed more than 20%.
– Global demand for US dollars surged. In effort to meet the demand, Fed stages the most significant intervention in US history, opening the door to buying corporate bonds.
Market Outlook – MRI moves firmly into neutral territory
– Big improvement in psychology composite – but not consistent with the the end of a bear market.
– Monetary aggregates showing recessionary flight to safety, but the Fed is keeping the yield curve from normalizing.
– Small-cap valuations improve again, likely to lead in the next bull.
– AAII Allocation Survey – ratio of stock to cash allocations the lowest since 2011.
– Market Trend for REITs and Intl equities turns defensive
%
Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%