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World Wrap

World Wrap

– Large bounces in US risk assets last week on news of even more drastic Fed intervention, this time in junk bonds.
– It’s unusual, but not unheard of, that the sectors and styles that were leading the bull market are also leading early in the bear market.
– Saudi Arabia, Russia, and US lead coalition to cut oil supply, but it may be too late to stem oversupply from sharp drop in demand.
– Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, tried to temper expectations for a V-shaped economic recovery over the weekend, as Fed’s bal sheet surpasses $6T.

Q1 2020 World Wrap

Q1 2020 World Wrap

– Bull market ends, just shy of its 11th birthday. Bear market began with a massive unwind of leveraged investors as Coronavirus triggers a global recession.
– Previous bull’s most loved (Tech, growth, etc) continue to hold up, while the most unloved areas are punished further (Energy, small value, etc).
– Nearly 10mil file unemployment claims over the last 2wks. Gold and US Gov’t securities the only assets to close up in Q1. Prices on 20Yr Treas climbed more than 20%.
– Global demand for US dollars surged. In effort to meet the demand, Fed stages the most significant intervention in US history, opening the door to buying corporate bonds.

Market Outlook – MRI moves firmly into neutral territory

Market Outlook – MRI moves firmly into neutral territory

– Big improvement in psychology composite – but not consistent with the the end of a bear market.
– Monetary aggregates showing recessionary flight to safety, but the Fed is keeping the yield curve from normalizing.
– Small-cap valuations improve again, likely to lead in the next bull.
– AAII Allocation Survey – ratio of stock to cash allocations the lowest since 2011.
– Market Trend for REITs and Intl equities turns defensive

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%