– Stocks sold off early in the week but then rallied strongly on Friday on trade US-China trade optimism to finish the week higher. Intl stocks saw the largest gains.
– S&P 500 within a couple of percent of new highs with the last month’s returns driven largely by more defensive and cautious sectors & factors.
– China exports to US dropped over 20% in September on heavier tariffs. Over weekend, China said to want more talks before agreeing to phase 1 deal.
– Fed announces it will buy $60 billion in T-Bills per month through Q2 2020 in an effort to stabilize money markets.
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Market Outlook: Is the tide starting to go out?
– Individual investors are overweight equities, nervous and selling. Meanwhile, big cap US corporations continue to buy the stock they are selling.
– Growth in monetary aggregates is accelerating, and the yield curve inversion is lasting too long.
World Wrap
– Stocks dropped, while bonds and REITs rallied. REITs are up nearly 30% year to date. US equities beating intl stocks by almost double.
– Style boxes have again fallen neatly back into the predominant 2019 theme: growth over value & large over small. Low vol stocks beating almost everything.
– US-China trade talks resume this week, and China reported to be taking a tougher stance. China has bot over 100 tons of gold since resuming purchases in Dec.
– US Unemployment falls to 3.5%, a 50 year low. Trade deficit rises in August with no sign of improvement as a result of tariffs.
Market Outlook: MRI close to worst readings of 2019.
– Investor psychology breaches the worst decile of readings.
– Consumers widely expect lower interest rates over the next 12 months, to levels consistent with economies in or most vulnerable to recession.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%