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World Wrap

World Wrap

– Stocks sold off early in the week but then rallied strongly on Friday on trade US-China trade optimism to finish the week higher. Intl stocks saw the largest gains.
– S&P 500 within a couple of percent of new highs with the last month’s returns driven largely by more defensive and cautious sectors & factors.
– China exports to US dropped over 20% in September on heavier tariffs. Over weekend, China said to want more talks before agreeing to phase 1 deal.
– Fed announces it will buy $60 billion in T-Bills per month through Q2 2020 in an effort to stabilize money markets.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Stocks dropped, while bonds and REITs rallied. REITs are up nearly 30% year to date. US equities beating intl stocks by almost double.
– Style boxes have again fallen neatly back into the predominant 2019 theme: growth over value & large over small. Low vol stocks beating almost everything.
– US-China trade talks resume this week, and China reported to be taking a tougher stance. China has bot over 100 tons of gold since resuming purchases in Dec.
– US Unemployment falls to 3.5%, a 50 year low. Trade deficit rises in August with no sign of improvement as a result of tariffs.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%