Divergence in asset class performance last week, US equities rallied to new highs. Bonds, REITs and international stocks all declined.
While big cap stocks made headlines with new highs last week, small and mid-cap stocks declined. Healthcare stocks continue to struggle in 2019, declining 1.4%.
China’s economic growth at its slowest in 27 years on trade tensions and lack of investment.
Crude oil rose almost 5% during the week, pushing broad commodity indices higher. Prices for long maturity Treasuries declined more than 1%.
Archive
Market Outlook – Psychology making a push toward bottom 10% of readings
Market Risk Index moves higher on deterioration in both monetary and psychology categories.
M2 and MZM growth rates are beginning to pick up, early signs of a shift toward risk aversion.
The market’s June bottom coincided with extremes in AAII survey and put/call ratios. Both have reversed, one to neutral, the other to the opposite extreme.
World Wrap
US equities lead all asset classes. Earnings season picks up this week. Analysts expect Q2 to bring a 2.6% decline in yr over yr eps for the S&P 500.
In a positive development for breadth, mid cap stocks are beginning to catch up with large cap stocks. Small caps continue to lag, as well as Healthcare sector stocks.
Conservatives in Greece win national election in landslide on promises to cut taxes and red tape. Greece leads all ytd country returns.
Powell semi-annual testimony on monetary policy on Wed & Thur. Friday’s jobs report complicates picture of Fed easing. Mkt pricing in a July rate cut, but that’s it.
Market Outlook – Corporate Insiders are Buying
OpenInsider Buy to Sell Ratio shows corporate insiders buying stocks in a way that we’ve never seen with a market at highs. It’s highlighting the growing relative attractiveness of smaller cap stocks.
Monetary Conditions continue an ongoing tug of war between the inverted yield curve and falling corporate bond yields. The yield curve is winning.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%